EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR STORM DESK
CME tracker.
Direction before drama.
A bright eruption is only the beginning of the forecast. Solar WAVE follows the evidence from coronagraph imagery to the modeled arrival window, then watches the live solar wind for the moment the disturbance reaches Earth.
OPEN LIVE CME DESK →See material leave the Sun.
Coronagraphs block the bright solar disk so expanding plasma becomes visible. The LASCO view is essential for identifying a CME, estimating its speed, and looking for the broad halo geometry associated with motion toward or away from Earth.
Confirm the Sun–Earth geometry.
A single image can be misleading. NOAA and NASA forecasters compare viewpoints and propagation models to decide whether the ejecta should intersect Earth, graze it, or pass elsewhere.
Treat the countdown as a window.
CME arrival forecasts carry uncertainty because the cloud expands, interacts with background solar wind, and can accelerate or decelerate. Solar WAVE displays modeled timing as an operational countdown without pretending it is exact.
Watch Bz when the disturbance arrives.
Speed and density create pressure, but sustained southward Bz is often the ingredient that intensifies geomagnetic coupling. The live L1 readings and Kp response show whether the forecast disturbance is becoming an Earth storm.
PLAIN-ENGLISH ANSWERS
What people ask next.
How long does a CME take to reach Earth?
Transit time varies widely. Fast events can arrive in roughly a day, while slower events may take several days or miss Earth entirely. Forecasts are arrival windows, not exact appointments.
How do you know whether a CME is Earth-directed?
Forecasters compare coronagraph imagery from multiple viewpoints with propagation models. A halo appearance can suggest motion along the Sun–Earth line, but geometry and modeling are needed before calling it Earth-directed.
Why can a strong CME produce a weak storm?
The magnetic orientation on arrival is critical. If the CME’s field does not couple efficiently with Earth’s field, geomagnetic effects can be weaker than its speed or appearance suggested.